Chatter undermines surface quality, tool life, and productivity, and most available indicators react only after vibration is fully developed. We introduce a real-time monitoring framework for turning that runs short time-domain simulations, extracts a single energy-trend indicator from the tool’s phase-space spiral area, and triggers threshold-based decisions. The indicator crosses its zero threshold several spindle revolutions before visible amplitude growth, enabling proactive speed or depth adjustments and extending machine life. Validation with reconstructed a literature case confirms the indicator’s robustness and its ability to track the stability-lobe boundary from one kinematic signal.