THE TRANSFORMATIVE LANDSCAPE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE IMPERATIVES OF GOVERNANCE: A FORESIGHT APPROACH TO EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

Abstract

This study adopts a foresight approach to examine the transformations brought about by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and their social, cultural, and institutional implications in Iran. The primary aim is to address three key questions: the opportunities AI presents for enhancing quality of life and social development; the threats and harms arising from the unregulated expansion of this technology; and the strategic outlook and governance scenarios for AI in Iran. The research methodology is qualitative, descriptive-analytical, and based on content analysis of 33 reputable domestic and international articles. Findings indicate that AI can play a significant role in sustainable national development by creating opportunities across sectors such as education, healthcare, industry, culture, security, media, ethics, and identity. Conversely, thematic analysis reveals that unregulated AI development may lead to consequences including job displacement due to automation, deepening digital divides, power concentration within large corporations, weakening of national sovereignty in cyberspace, and disruption of decision-making systems. At the cultural and identity level, threats such as the erosion of human relationships, promotion of non-indigenous values, loss of identity among younger generations, weakening of the Persian language, and reduction of human ethics to algorithmic logic have been identified, making responsible AI development an urgent necessity. Based on analysis of global trends and patterns, five strategic scenarios are proposed: responsible development, technology localization, strengthening university-industry-government collaboration, digital literacy enhancement, and participatory governance. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the need for developing indigenous and ethics-centered policies, improving digital literacy, and establishing participatory, multi-level governance structures to ensure AI becomes an effective, human-centric, and forward-looking tool aligned with Iran’s cultural and social objectives.